- An area in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is being closely monitored.
- A tropical storm may develop over the next day or so.
- It is likely to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall on Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
- Cyclones are stronger at landfall.
- Affected parts of the south may continue till Friday.
Tropical Storm Helen is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea and strengthen into a strong hurricane before hitting Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
Interests along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the situation closely and stay up-to-date on how the forecast will unfold in the coming days. Hurricane plans ready to go
Where is it now: There is a wide depression in the western Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms are gradually forming over this region.
It’s called INVEST 97L, and it’s used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they’re watching for future development.
The NHC has scheduled its first Hurricane Hunter mission for the western Caribbean Sea this afternoon.
(Further improve your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – available only with us Premium Pro Experience.)
Here’s when a storm might form and where to track it:
– Monday-Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models suggest a tropical depression or storm could develop as soon as late Monday or Tuesday. By late Tuesday, Helen could become a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane near Cancun, Cozumel and western Cuba. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely in those areas.
– Wednesday: Helen can have some lasting effects in Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba, especially early on. We expect Helen to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico, most likely as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands may reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
– Thursday: While there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, we expect Helen to make landfall as a hurricane, possibly stronger than Jupiter at times. Although computer forecast models suggest that a landfall is likely anywhere from Florida’s Big Bend to the Panhandle, remember that hurricane impacts (surge, wind, rain) often occur far from the center. There are still some computer ensemble model predictions. Tracks range as far east as Florida’s west coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana. Therefore, everyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast.
– Friday: The system is likely to continue inland with weakened winds, but southeasterly areas with locally flooding rains.
Sample forecast tracks
(The lines in this graphic represent many of the multi-track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as a guide to create a planned route. )
How strong can it be: Helen could become a strong hurricane in the Gulf.
That’s because heat content is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows an abundance of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, there is a degree of heat in the Gulf of Mexico High levels are recorded at this time of the yearAccording to Brian McNoldy, a tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
(For even more weather data tracking in your area, check out our detailed 15-minute forecast Premium Pro Experience.)
But it’s not just warm water.
Some forecast models suggest that instead of shearing and tilting Helen’s circulation, upper-level winds may spread over Helen.
For those reasons, Helen could reach Category 3 intensity before making landfall in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Chance of Rain: While it’s too early for details on other impacts — including storm surge and winds — we expect Helen to bring heavy rain generally along its path and to the east.
Southeastern areas are expected to see more rain from Thursday to Friday, but heavy rain is likely from Wednesday onwards. This rain can lead to flash floods, especially when combined with storm surge and high terrain.
Precipitation Outlook
(Although not all of the precipitation shown above is from this tropical system, it should be interpreted as a broad overview of where the heaviest precipitation occurs. Higher amounts may occur in areas with thunderstorms or thunderstorms lasting more than a few hours. .)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and freak weather are his favorite topics. Approach him X (formerly Twitter), texts, Facebook And Bluesky.
