As Super Tuesday makes a historic rematch official, voters are comparing not just two presidents, but two. Presidential positions.
Now former President Donald Trump is leading that comparison. He leads President Biden nationally by four points, his largest lead to date. Here's why:
Voters now remember Trump's economy more fondly than they value it.
While neither scored big, voters today look back on Trump's presidency with relatively better retrospective ratings than they have so far rated Joe Biden's presidency.
(For the record, people rated the economy well in 2019, but during Trump's last year in office, views dipped during the pandemic.)
This is the case, even if the views of today's economy continue to rise.
It is still Mr. Not helping Biden, at least not compared to Trump.
Mr. This is because Biden's policies are expected to drive up prices –
Republicans overwhelmingly say they expect lower prices if Trump is elected.
It is part of a larger movement: Mr. Some of the flaws in Biden's polling came from his own Democratic base being relatively critical of him. Twice as many Democrats call Biden's presidency fair or poor than Republicans describe Trump's.
More voters think Trump is “fighting for people like them” than Biden.
More voters think Donald Trump has a vision for the country than Joe Biden.
After several arguments from the Biden campaign about Trump's potential liabilities, Mr.
Democracy
Most Americans think Trump tried to stay in office past his term, but think he did. Illegally.
(They tend to vote heavily for Mr. Biden.)
But the rest of the country — including those who think he's trying to be legitimate — will largely back Trump.
Therefore, Mr. Biden has no significant advantage.
Abortion and IVF
A majority think Roe's reversal is bad for the country, but few blame Trump for it.
Majority think IVF should be legal.
Settlement and Border
Trump has a huge advantage in reducing the number of immigrants. It's an issue that most continue to say is, if not a crisis, at least very serious.
Trump vs. Biden Health
As had been the case for months, Mr. Even more than Biden, Trump is seen as having the physical and cognitive health to serve.
Finally, there are voter motivations and party bases.
“Negative” and “depressing” were the most commonly chosen descriptions by voters when asked about their expectations of another Biden-Trump campaign.
Democrats in particular say so.
Mr. Most of Biden's voters think this is an election of mostly fear-mongering; And most of them Mr. They vote to oppose Trump rather than to like Biden.
Most of Trump's voters say this is an election about hope for what might happen; Most of them are voting for Trump because they like him, Mr. Biden has no opposition.
The effect, at least for now, is this: Mr. Biden is lagging because Democrats are less likely to say they'll vote for sure.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted between February 28-March 1, 2024, with a nationally representative sample of 2,159 US adults interviewed. The sample was weighted by sex, age, race, and education based on the US Census American Community Census. and the current census, as well as past votes. The margin of error is ±2.8 points.
